Evaluation of policy measures due to SARS-CoV-2

To explore the effects of policy measures an ex post and ex ante forecast can be executed. In

principle two questions can be addressed:

-

What would have happened in case a certain or a bunch of the policies imposed would have not

been applied (ex post)?

-

What will happen when e.g. all policies measures would be released (ex ante)?

The analyses show the effects on the Covid-19 numbers and their spatial distribution as well as

airport and network specific demand. It is also possible to explore what effects air service

connectivity has on the spread of SARS-CoV-2. On the one hand one can look backwards and

explore the correlation between air connectivity and the virus and on the other hand one can execute

a simulation assuming a network connecting SARS-CoV-2 hot spots to investigate the spreading of

the virus. The implications of air services upon SARS-CoV-2 can be identified as the regional air

connectivity is used. This does not work with the bunch of air connectivity indicators used so far by

the aviation industry as they are just linked to an airport.

5

Acknowledgement

This paper is based on the research work entitled “Modelling air transport under the uncertainty of

SARS-CoV-2” (May 15

th

2020) which started in March 2020 and was carried out by the authors.

The authors are grateful to the enthusiastic network planning team of Eurowings airlines

(

) providing industry insights and applying the models as well as to Dr. Karl

Echtermeyer and Mr. Marian Konopinski contributing to the research project enormously on private

base. Many thanks as well to Prof. Dr. Marc Gaudry, Emeritus of the Université de Montréal, for

assistance on using the TRIO platform, Ms. Michaela Schultheiß-Münch and Mr. Roger Heil of

Fraport AG (

) providing comments from the airports’ perspective as well as

graphical support, and Ms. Amaya Manrique of SODENA/Navarra (

) providing

comments from the regions’ perspective and allowing to refer to the Pamplona case. Worldwide

thanks to colleagues and partners from previous projects providing national insights and links. Great

thanks to the MKmetric crew and Fritzowsky Software & Consulting (

) making

even the impossible possible by implementing in such a short time our research in an agile way.

Finally we are grateful for the advice of Prof. Dr. Nawal Taneja, Emeritus of the Ohio State

University, for streamlining our paper and the acceptance for publication in parallel, Ms. Gaa-

Mandel for reviewing the English version, and Routledge for final lecturing and publishing. Our

research is supported by two video clips - to be visited at

- developed by Manuel

Mandel and Cedric Mandel of memperience GmbH (

) assisted by wyynot

GmbH (

), thanks for your great creativity and engagement.

Our research was funded partially by the State of Hesse and HOLM (

) as

part of the measure “Innovations in the Logistics and Mobility” of the Hessian Ministry of

Economics, Energy, Transport and Housing, Germany (

), (HA project no.: 860/20-

17). Thank you for this great financial support and the flexibility of Ms. Kirsch allowing to adjust

research targets in the light of the pandemic situation.

Of course, any shortcomings remain with the authors.

MKmetric GmbH

www.mkm.de

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