because the passenger of O&D A1-B1 will choose the new non-stop connection A1-B1. Hereby the

number of people starting their trip from airport A1 (three) remains constant (leaving aside some

generation effects added at the end of the computation).

The "Door-to-Door" model approach

depicts the world realistically. The routes with passenger

loss lose profitability. Capacity adjustments (frequency of service, aircraft size) can lead to the

necessary abandonment of the route. On the other hand, the new route will deduct a significant

number of passengers from the existing routes, as travellers have now chosen a new alternative to

the old route. However, the O&D model approach does not show such changes. In our example,

passengers change their departure airport (A2) and travel from A1 (see Figure 1). This effect is also

known as cannibalisation. Both passengers choose the new non-stop connection A1-B1. In addition,

a passenger departing from A1 who previously travelled via B2 to B1 will now (also) choose the

non-stop flight A1-B1. All in all, these interrelationships (airport / route choice effects) can be

explained if real mobility needs are depicted in the model. These effects appear out of the "Door-to-

Door" perspective. The lower graph of Figure 1 describes these (complete) travel routes from

Region-1 to Region-2.

Both effects lead to cannibalisation of existing routes, i.e. the old existing routes lose passengers

due to redistribution. However, the "Door-to-Door" approach (also) results in a change of departure

point and a change of destination. The "Door-to-Door" approach thus realistically reflects mobility

needs and the decision-making behaviour of passengers. In an open market a new route (A1-B1)

could also attract more passengers (e.g. transfer passengers).

In the following, these relationships are described in a somewhat structured manner:

Demand generation effects

-

The new route generates new demand. This is the case when a destination was previously not

reachable but is now reachable. On the one hand, the new demand results from people's nature to

discover new destinations. On the other hand, additional demand results from the possibility for

a business to establish new business relationships

1

. This is equivalent to satisfying subliminal

mobility needs in the market, which is optimal for an airline.

Destination choice effects

-

There will be destination choice

effects for which regional connectivity is crucial. Especially if

the destination becomes directly accessible for the first time by a new route. Regional

connectivity differs in principle from the connectivity indicators used in the aviation industry.

The focus here is not on the airport hub, but on the source (e.g. Region-1 in Figure 1) and the

destination (e.g. Region-2 in Figure 1) of travellers who use air transport services only as a

means to an end

2

.

1

2

MKmetric GmbH

www.mkm.de

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